Brian
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Post by Brian on Mar 22, 2021 23:00:13 GMT -8
Poor Cruz Bustamante. He did the right thing in 2003 when he entered the gubernatorial recall election, believing that there should be at least one viable Democrat on the ballot in case Governor Gray Davis was voted out of office. His slogan was "No on Recall, Yes on Bustamante." He came in a distant second to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Termed out as lieutenant governor, Bustamante ran for insurance commissioner in 2006 and lost, becoming the last Democrat to date to lose a statewide election. And many political operatives and pundits still blame Bustamante for Davis' recall loss.
Almost certainly, we'll have another recall election this fall. So much has changed in California since 2003, as shown in that map above -- now most of those counties are light or very dark blue. Republican registration statewide has gone from 35 percent then to 24 percent now. Some people registered as No Party Preference reliably vote Republican yet Trump could only get 34 percent of the votes last November in a historically high turnout. The only way a Republican can win in California is in a special election -- with a lot of help from Democrats.
Gavin Newsom and his crew want no serious Democrats to run in the race to replace him, which means that if he loses the recall, we could have a Republican governor for a year. So far three viable Republicans have declared their candidacies. All of them voted for Trump in 2020. They will split the anti-Newsom vote. So why not run a Democrat? Just in case.
I know that the entire recall process is fraught with political danger for the Democratic party, but somebody is bound to run. The early buzz centers on former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who came in third in the June 2018 gubernatorial primary. He has nothing to lose. Newsom and the regular party Democrats fear that a well organized, more progressive candidate -- someone less corporate than Newsom or Villaraigosa -- could lead to more people voting yes on the recall. That would be a tragedy if a Republican slips by. My best idea so far is a placeholder: someone prominent, chosen and promoted by the party, who would pledge not to run for a full term in 2022 if Newsom is recalled. How about Cruz Bustamante, who's only 68 years old?
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Post by Sharon W on Mar 23, 2021 6:31:40 GMT -8
The older I get the less I understand politics.
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Roberta
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Post by Roberta on Apr 4, 2021 6:54:26 GMT -8
I understand the thought of having a Democrat on the second part of the recall ballot, “just in case,” but I would rather see a huge effort state-wide to defeat the recall! We certainly have the numbers, if we unite behind our Governor. The older I get the less I understand politics.
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Brian
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Post by Brian on May 20, 2021 23:00:20 GMT -8
We're still weeks away from the lieutenant governor setting a date for the recall election sometime next fall yet campaign ads have been airing for weeks already. Multimillionaire John Cox is in heavy rotation, trying to build name recognition despite this being his fifth campaign for office in California, plus one race in Illinois along the way. He's spending $5 million on the ads statewide. Since I last posted in March, Caitlyn Jenner became the fourth name Republican to become a candidate. There could be one or two more. If Cox gets 38 percent of the vote in that field -- the same percentage he got in November 2018 against Newsom, who had the biggest gubernatorial landslide since Earl Warren was re-elected in 1950 -- that would probably be more than enough to win if the GQP vote is split among three or four candidates.
That assumes that California Democrats and like minded No Party Preference voters will skip the second half of the recall ballot, which is what we're going to be asked to do since Newsom and party officials are trying to keep any Democrat from running. I still think we need a back up plan.
My best idea so far is a placeholder: someone prominent, chosen and promoted by the party, who would pledge not to run for a full term in 2022 if Newsom is recalled. How about Cruz Bustamante, who's only 68 years old? Joe Mathews, one of my favorite writers published by LA Progressive, has a better idea -- Gray Davis: www.laprogressive.com/recall-predicament/?utm_source=LA+Progressive+NEW&utm_campaign=7d6a834af4-LAP+News+-+20+April+17+PC_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_61288e16ef-7d6a834af4-286919349&mc_cid=7d6a834af4&mc_eid=30911fd29cWhy didn't I think of that? People understand karma better than politics.
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Jul 28, 2021 0:53:15 GMT -8
The poll in Tuesday's Los Angeles Times reports that just 50 percent of likely voters would vote no on the recall September 14 and 47 percent would vote yes, a difference within the margin of error. Only 3 percent say they're undecided. The spread increases to 51-36 among all registered voters with 13 percent of them undecided.
Luckily, every registered voter will receive a ballot in the mail in about three weeks. How do you tell them to ignore the second half of the ballot, which lists no viable Democratic or Green Party candidates? How do you compensate for Newsom's declining popularity in every poll in the past 12 months? And then how do you inspire them to return that ballot?
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Aug 3, 2021 23:00:12 GMT -8
Dianne Feinstein cannot die. Nor can she resign or become incapacitated before January 2023 if Newsom is recalled, which almost certainly would result in a Republican becoming governor. That person would undoubtedly appoint a Republican to replace her, busting the 51-50 Democratic voting majority in the Senate and putting Mitch McConnell back in charge.
If Ruth Bader Ginsburg had lived four more months, Biden would have nominated her successor and the future would be much brighter in the U.S.A., as a glance at last term's Supreme Court decisions indicates. I worried about the health of Feinstein's fellow octogenarian colleague Patrick Leahy when he was admitted to a Washington hospital for several hours last January. I worry about all of them. And I wonder: Should Feinstein resign now so Newsom can name her successor -- a Black woman! he promised! -- before the September 14 recall election?
I pride myself on being some kind of pundit, but I didn't think about the Feinstein scenario -- even though Newsom appointed Alex Padilla as senator to replace Kamala Harris just last December -- until I read Harold Meyerson's op-ed in Tuesday's Los Angeles Times:
www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-08-02/democrats-must-scare-their-voters-to-the-polls-to-fight-newsom-recall
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Aug 18, 2021 23:00:10 GMT -8
I got my recall ballot in the mail this week. Newsom and the state Democratic Party succeeded in deterring any viable Democrat from running to replace him if he's recalled, so I'm hanging onto my ballot until August 31 at least, the deadline for write in candidates to file to have their votes counted. But it's too late to find a candidate that progressives can rally around because people are already mailing in their ballots. A successful candidate would probably have to raise a few million dollars to get the word out, hoping that nearly half of the people who vote No on the recall will also vote for him or her. That's what it would take to defeat Larry Elder if he gets the 20 percent he's polling now.
The Los Angeles Times editorial board recommends that voters "hold their noses" and vote for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who used to have a reputation as a moderate Republican. After refusing to vote for Trump in 2016, he cast his ballot for him in 2020. I have 45 years of experience voting for the least of all evils but I don't think I can go this low.
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Post by Oss Rae on Aug 20, 2021 15:01:54 GMT -8
I've gotten at least three people I know to vote against the recall. The fact that a Republican would give us COVID policies like those Florida, Texas, etc. was enough to get their attention. I hope the no on recall campaign starts emphasizing that.
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Sept 14, 2021 23:00:34 GMT -8
NBC called the election at 8:36 -- that's how big the percentage of No votes was among the mail ins received before Tuesday plus the ballots cast at early voting centers. The numbers of ballots ready to count at 8:00 was huge, even compared to last November's record haul, and key counties immediately started reporting the good news. There aren't enough Republican recall fans who voted in person on Tuesday or who postmarked their ballots by then to make up the difference.
As I post, the No's have 65 percent statewide with 70 percent of the precincts reporting. In L.A. County so far, it's 73 percent against the recall.
Let me concede that Gavin and the state party were proven right -- or were they just lucky -- in preventing a name Democrat from running as a back up in case the recall was successful, which had been my obsession since I started this thread in March. Going by conversations with friends and people on the street, leaving the second part of the ballot blank wasn't as confounding as I had feared. Now the legislature can put a constitutional amendment on the November 2022 ballot to fix the recall process so we don't have to go through this again in 2023.
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Post by analysis on Sept 15, 2021 0:11:54 GMT -8
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/7cai5m/major_league_baseball_payroll_by_team_oc/
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/o21569/oc_californias_shift_to_the_left_since_the_last/
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ouog30/rent_prices_are_soaring_across_the_united_states/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/p3biw2/covid19_case_rate_vs_vaccination_rate_for_each_us/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/p615o7/oc_daily_covid_cases_by_country_updated_august/
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