Brian
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Post by Brian on Oct 24, 2018 23:00:30 GMT -8
Don't know about you guys, but my November 6 ballot contains the most stress free choices in memory. Most of the candidates that I'm voting for are shoo-ins. No chance whatsoever that John Cox will be the next governor. Where two Democrats are facing off, I have strong preferences, but I won't lose any sleep if Eleni Kounalakis bests Ed Hernandez. I've come to adore Dianne Feinstein, as well documented earlier on this message board, yet I'm sad that Kevin de Leon isn't running stronger against her.
The only real anxiety on my sample ballot is fixed on Proposition 6, which would repeal a somewhat regressive 12 cent a gallon gas tax and a progressive annual fee based on vehicle value that are funding long overdue repairs to California's roads. I'm hoping that the initiative -- a constitutional amendment! -- goes down because majorities of voters have proven in past statewide elections that they are willing to tax themselves when necessary. But I'm worried that Prop 6 will turn out more "yes" voters, the now old people and their descendants who gave us Proposition 13 in 1978, which has messed us up ever since.
I'm really on edge following the Congressional races to the north and south of my beautiful 28th District, represented by Adam Schiff. Will the people who resent paying a few hundred dollars extra each year for the roads they drive turn out in great numbers -- and help to re-elect Congressmen like Devin Nunes and Dana Rohrabacher? I had been expecting registered Republicans, who are an ever dwindling slice of California's electorate, to feel either complacent or discouraged about Trump, and therefore stay away from the polls this time. I can be silly.
Gazing beyond the state border, cold sweat pours out of my body when I contemplate another Congressional term with both houses under Republican control.
On that happy note, I'd love to read your thoughts about this election here in the next two weeks -- and afterwards. Guests are always welcome to post on the Montrose Peace Vigil message board.
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Brian
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Posts: 3,801
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Post by Brian on Nov 3, 2018 23:00:08 GMT -8
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the most contentious -- and important -- statewide choice on the ballot, Superintendent of Public Instruction. Like every local school board office and most state legislative races these days, it's a big money battle between the charter schools billionaires and the teachers' unions. A vote for Tony Thurmond is a vote for the future of public education.
I gave Rep. Adam Schiff's campaign $100 last year, partly so I could monitor his fundraising e-mails this year. With his re-election assured in our 28th District, much of the cash he's raised is going to other Democratic candidates. In 2016, local activist and all around beautiful human being Lenore Solis, an old fashioned Republican who agreed to run so that Schiff wouldn't be unopposed, got 22 percent of the vote. I'll be watching the totals after Tuesday to see how Trump enthusiast Johnny Nalbandian, a very personable blowhard, does in comparison. How much of our district -- which stretches from Tujunga and the foothills above Glendale through Burbank and Hollywood into West Hollywood -- agrees with Johnny?
I've spent so much time reading and thinking about the propositions -- some since their inception -- that I feel like sharing my list of conclusions, indicating varying levels of enthusiasm: - Prop 1 - YES
- Prop 2 - YES
- Prop 3 - No
- Prop 4 - Yes
- Prop 5 - NO
- Prop 6 - NO
- Prop 7 - No
- Prop 8 - skip
- Prop 10 - YES
- Prop 11 - No
- Prop 12 - skip
I don't know how to reform the initiative process, but long ago I learned that some propositions shouldn't be on my ballot, and the face off between the corrupt dialysis industry and the service employees union might be the worst. I won't ink my blot for either circle of Prop 8. As for Prop 12, I say leave me out of this -- if you care, just stop eating factory chicken, pork and veal.
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Post by Sharon W on Nov 4, 2018 9:11:53 GMT -8
I agree with your assessment of our representative - and I'll share your kind words with Lenore later today. I agree with you on most of the propositions too.
I'll add we support YES on county measure W - a parcel tax for the flood control district - So Cal needs to save all the storm water we can, even drought tolerant native plants need some irrigation now and again.
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Nov 6, 2018 0:00:36 GMT -8
Here's hoping that a nationwide blue tsunami splashes over the gerrymandering and voter suppression on the other side of California's borders, enough to get us wet too.
Now it's time for my traditional election day mailbox tally. I know it's wacky, but counting the mailers helps me figure out where campaign money is spent, who's paying and what they think their best arguments are. Anni and I are both registered Democrats who always vote, so our mailbox used to sag before every election even though we get surprisingly few duplicates. I say used to, because this statewide general election only garnered 34 mailers, three more than we got for the primary in June. In comparison, the total was 74 pieces of campaign mail in November 2016, a presidential election.
We didn't receive any mail for U.S. Senator, U.S. Representative and Governor, and nothing for the expensive race between two Democrats for Lieutenant Governor. Instead we received multiple mailings from the same addresses for these spots on my ballot:
- Superintendent of Public Instruction - 5 for Tuck or anti-Thurmond from the charter schools billionaires, 2 for Thurmond paid by the California Democratic Party
- Los Angeles County Sheriff - 3 for Villaneuva from the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs
- Los Angeles County Assessor - 1 from Prang's campaign
- 39th Assembly District - 1 for Rivas from Californians Allied for Patient Protection, whatever that is
- Proposition 1 (housing bonds) - 1 Yes from the building trades, Chevron and PG&E
- Proposition 5 (property tax break for the well heeled) - 1 No from service employees' and teachers' unions
- Proposition 6 (repeal gas tax) - 3 No from construction businesses and unions
- Proposition 8 (dialysis regulation) - 4 No from the dialysis industry
- Proposition 10 (rent control) - 3 No from landlord conglomerates
- Proposition 11 (ambulance labor laws) - 6 Yes from American Medical Response
- Slates - 4, including one from the California Democratic Party
I expect to get fewer slates in a general election than we do for the primaries -- we received 11 in June -- but four is an all time low. One of them came from Equality California, the statewide LGTBQ civil rights organization, which accepted no money for its endorsements. Maybe the U.S. mail is losing out to digital and TV advertising.
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Brian
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Posts: 3,801
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Post by Brian on Nov 8, 2018 0:00:09 GMT -8
The block in Burbank where Rep. Adam Schiff's district office resides today, as seen circa 1938. I was watching MSNBC on election night when Adam Schiff appeared on my screen, being interviewed in a familiar place -- standing on the corner of San Fernando Road and Olive Avenue in Burbank, half a block from his district office. I was there Monday afternoon, where I saw a Johnny Nalbandian sign somebody stuck in the municipal planter with the words "racist" and "immigrant hater" scrawled with a black Sharpie around Johnny's name. Before last Friday's Montrose Peace Vigil, his people pasted two bumper stickers on the light pole. Anni saw another sticker on one of those beautifully painted utility boxes we have around Tujunga. Alas, it appears that Johnny's legacy in the 28th Congressional District will remain as just a tagger and a litterer. In 2016, local activist and all around beautiful human being Lenore Solis, an old fashioned Republican who agreed to run so that Schiff wouldn't be unopposed, got 22 percent of the vote. I'll be watching the totals after Tuesday to see how Trump enthusiast Johnny Nalbandian, a very personable blowhard, does in comparison. How much of our district -- which stretches from Tujunga and the foothills above Glendale through Burbank and Hollywood into West Hollywood -- agrees with Johnny? Not much. So far, with all of the precincts and initial absentee ballots counted, Johnny has 23.6 percent of the vote. And he campaigned like a maniac, while Lenore did not lift a finger to get 22 percent. I can't find the page on the Secretary of State's website with the tallies of uncounted ballots by county, which is weird, but I heard that Orange County alone has 400,000 later absentee and provisional ballots to count. At least two Congressional races there are very close right now. The state propositions, however, are well settled. The only real anxiety on my sample ballot is fixed on Proposition 6, which would repeal a somewhat regressive 12 cent a gallon gas tax and a progressive annual fee based on vehicle value that are funding long overdue repairs to California's roads. I'm hoping that the initiative -- a constitutional amendment! -- goes down because majorities of voters have proven in past statewide elections that they are willing to tax themselves when necessary. Did we dodge another Republican bullet, or are they only firing blanks? It's true that they spent one tenth of the amount that the construction companies, trade unions and good government groups amassed to defeat Proposition 6. But I prefer to believe that Californians -- at least the 55 percent of us who voted No -- have the good sense to pay for what we need.
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Post by Sharon W on Nov 8, 2018 8:30:13 GMT -8
And locally county measure W passed so there will be more funding for water project infrastructure and Glendale city sales tax increase passed. That's predicted to supply $30 yearly for the general fund and the current councilmembers have pledged to spend the bulk on affordable housing. The majority of voters do understand we have to pay for services we need. Now we just have to watch our elected officials so they actually spend the revenue on services and not graft! Democracy is hard work.
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Brian
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Posts: 3,801
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Post by Brian on Nov 14, 2018 0:00:31 GMT -8
After election night, five million votes remained to be counted statewide. A week later, the total stands at nearly 3.3 million absentee and provisional ballots.
When I woke up Tuesday, state Superintendent of Public Instruction candidate Tony Thurmond -- who has trailed in the count since election night -- led Marshall Tuck by 1,732 votes. At the close of business, his lead increased to 76,408 votes.
Right now, it seems that every Republican Congressional district seriously contested by the Democratic party and various activist groups is going to flip. Democrat Mike Levin was the clear winner on election night of the seat Rep. Darrell Issa was relinquishing, which Issa held by less than 2,000 votes in 2016. Then Rep. Steve Knight conceded to Katy Hill in the 25th District, which used to be held by Buck McKeon, my Congressman before reapportionment. Over the weekend, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's defeat was called by several news organizations. Rep. Mimi Walters lost her lead over Katie Porter on Tuesday evening in Orange County -- she led by 3 percent last week. And the Associated Press just declared Josh Harder the winner over Rep. Jeff Denham in the 10th District centered in Modesto. That leaves the race in the 39th District, which takes in parts of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, where Rep. Ed Royce is retiring. Republican Young Kim's margin over Democrat Gil Cisneros shrank from 1,957 votes on Monday to 839 votes on Tuesday.
I miss baseball dearly, but this is more satisfying. The blue team wins every day.
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Brian
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Posts: 3,801
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Post by Brian on Nov 25, 2018 0:51:42 GMT -8
Two weeks after the election, more than one million ballots are yet to be counted statewide, about 70 percent of which are provisional.
No doubt you've heard that every square inch of Orange County will be represented by a Democrat in the 116th Congress of the United States of America. Farther north, another district is flipping with every new count from its four counties.
I lived in California's 21st Congressional District 40 years ago, back when I was in college and Republican Bobbi Fiedler defeated the venerable Democrat James Corman. With the growth of the state, the district has migrated to Kings, Kern, Fresno and Tulare counties, straddling Interstate 5 from Fort Tejon to Los Banos. Anni and I drive there twice a year. From the signs on the road, it's clear that the land is owned by Trump supporters. But the population of the district is 71 percent Latino and less than 20 percent white. Since 2013, David Valadao, a Republican with reasonable views on immigration, has represented the 21st.
Currently, Valadao leads carpetbagger Democrat T.J. Cox by 447 votes.
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Brian
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Post by Brian on Nov 29, 2018 0:00:26 GMT -8
Now 441,540 ballots are still uncounted in California. All counties have to finish by December 7.
In the 21st Congressional District, Democrat T.J. Cox took the lead from incumbent Republican David Valadao at the close of business on Monday. After the final results were announced by Fresno and Kings counties on Wednesday, Cox leads by 529 votes. I don't know how many of the nearly 10,000 voters whose ballots remain to be counted in Tulare and Kern counties reside in the 21st District, but the Los Angeles Times has called the race for Cox. On election night -- when he trailed Valadao by some 4,400 votes -- several news organizations declared Valadao the winner.
That was the last House race to be decided in the nation. Democrats gained 40 seats, seven of them in California, where the districts were drawn by a citizens' commission. How many seats would the Democrats have picked up if the rest of the country hadn't been gerrymandered by Republicans in 2011?
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